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Matthew Yglesias: The Rent Ratio's The Thing
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"Matthew Yglesias
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The Rent Ratio's The Thing
Bruce Bartlett on the possible housing bubble : Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco point out that one can get some idea of whether housing prices are out of line with fundamentals by comparing them to rents. This yields a ratio akin to the price/earnings ratio that investors use to gauge stock prices. On that basis, home prices are at historically high levels that appear unsustainable. He goes on to cite a bunch of possibly contrary evidence, but I don't understand why the buy/rent ratio point isn't almost entirely dispositive here. Shifts in the fundamentals that increase home prices should increase rental prices proportionally, but buy prices have increased faster. If demand for home purchases is rising faster than demand for home rentals, it seems to me that that can only mean that people are buying houses as speculative commodities -- spending more than the house is really worth to them in the expectation that it's value will only increase in the future. That means a small dip -- or even a market that stays flat for a little while -- could send the whole thing into reverse. Right?
December 15, 2004 Permalink
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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The Rent Ratio's The Thing :
» Housing Bubbles and Rent Ratios from Outside The Beltway
Bruce Barlett observes that the Fed's recent increases in the discount rate will increase the likelihood that the so-called "housing bubble" will burst.
As the Federal Reserve moves to raise short-term interest rates once again, flags are raised ... [Read More]
Tracked on Dec 15, 2004 6:27:32 PM
» Interest Rates and the Rent/Buy ratio from Deep"
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