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Election scorecard. - By William Saletan, David Kenner, and Louisa Herron Thomas - Slate Magazine
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"Briefing News & Politics Arts Life Business & Tech Science Podcasts & Video Blogs HOME / election scorecard : Where the elections stand today. Election Scorecard Where the presidential race stands today. By William Saletan, David Kenner, and Louisa Herron Thomas Updated Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004, at 2:47 AM ET If the Election Were Held Today Winner Loser 269 Electoral Votes 168 solid, 59 likely, 42 iffy 269 Electoral Votes 149 solid, 75 likely, 45 iffy PRINT DISCUSS E-MAIL RSS RECOMMEND... SINGLE PAGE Facebook MySpace Mixx Digg Reddit del.icio.us Furl Ma.gnolia Sphere StumbleUpon CLOSE Related in Slate In the series "Swingers," Slate explores the battleground states for the 2004 presidential election. Read dispatches from: Arizona , Delaware , Florida , Maine , Minnesota , Missouri , Nevada , New Mexico , Ohio , Oregon , Pennsylvania , Tennessee , Washington , West Virginia . Analysis Nov. 2, 2:30 a.m. ET: Our Electoral Scorecard compares the vote shares of the president and his challenger. It does not take into account the general principle, based on previous election results, that the president's share of the actual vote does not exceed his vote share in the final pre-election polls. How would that factor affect the outcome? The first table below lists 11 contested states in order of Bush's vote share. Theoretically, the deeper you go into the table, the harder it is for Bush to capture the state, given his current vote share. To win the election, Bush would have to take at least one state in which his average vote share is only 47.7 percent. If he fails to take Florida, he would have to win Iowa or Pennsylvania, where his vote share now stands at 47.3 percent. State Number of polls Since Avg. share Electoral votes Bush sum OH 5 10/27 48.6 20 236 MO 3 10/22 48.3 11 247 NM 4 10/26 47.8 5 252 WI 6 10/23 47.7 10 262 FL 6 10/27 47.7 27 289 IA 7 10/25 47.3 7 296 PA 4 10/27 47.3 21 317 NH 4 10/26 47.0 4 321 MI 4 10/25 44.5 17 33"
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