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Political Arithmetik: Partisanship moves
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Political Arithmetik
Where numbers and politics meet.
Quickies:
Undecided Voters and Racial Attitudes
The Road to 270 for McCain
National Sensitivity Comparison
Campaign '08 Trends vs '04 and '00 Update
New Interactive Charts at Pollster.com!
Obama Recovery across Red, Blue and Yellow States
Alaska Post-Palin
State and National Polling Post-Convention
Post Convention Bounce in the States
Republican Bounce and a Sensitivity Comparison
McCain, Obama and Clinton Favorable and Unfavorable Ratings
How Pollsters Affect Poll Results
Age and Turnout
Polling Trends in 2008 vs'04 and '00
Monday, March 20, 2006
Partisanship moves
(Click the figure, then click it again to see the full resolution.) Partisanship is a moving target over time and exhibits considerable variation across pollsters. The combination of both over time and across pollster variation makes simple comparisons of partisan balance across polls potentially misleading and agreement on a single partisan distribution difficult at best. Between January 1, 2005 and March 12, 2006, Republican partisan identification declined by an estimated 3.6%. The percentage of the adult population calling themselves Independent rose by 4.6%, and the percentage of Democrats declined by a statistically insignificant 0.4%. These changes are important for polling methodology and also present a politically important shift in the partisan balance. In the first post of this series on partisanship (here), I showed that pollsters differ substantially in the percentages in each partisan group their polls typically find. In this post I turn to change over time. While much more stable than many political attitudes, party identification is not immune to systematic variation over time. This makes the party id distribution for any pollster a moving target, while posing the problem"
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