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Jeff Vail - Law, Energy, Geopolitics, and Organizational Theory
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"Monday, June 29, 2009
The Renewables Hump 6: EROEI of Solar and Wind
As my brief pause from posting may have suggested, I'm struggling with how to best tackle the next step in this series. To recap, so far I've been discussing the "true" EROEI of renewable energy sources--meaning the measurement with no artificial boundary for accounting--and the need and challenges for calculating this figure. My plan was: 1) work through a few price-estimated EROEI calculations (at least one recent solar and one recent wind project); 2) show that these price-estimated EROEI figures are too low to support envisioned transitions to renewable energy sources; and then 3) argue that, while this method of calculating EROEI is itself suspect, until we come up with a better method for calculating boundaryless "true" EROEI, we must seriously scrutinize the viability of the predominant transition vision. I've been having a difficult time figuring out how to best make this into a solid argument. My initial desire was to use a very numbers-driven approach. I never intended price-estimated-EROEI to provide some verifiable, "true" EROEI figure, however (it is intended more as a reality-check backstop), so I've been concerned with proceeding on such a numbers-driven approach with price-estimated EROEI as the foundation. To be honest, I was hoping that, in writing this series, I would arrive at some far more accurate and transparent means of calculating "true" EROEI. Unfortunately, the result has been the opposite--while I am still convinced of the value of price-estimated-EROEI as a reality check, its inherent flaws have been well highlighted by my own efforts to refine it, and especially by the very thoughtful comments that I've received. Therefore, I now think it's best to embrace this fuzziness--to use the price-estimated-EROEI in its originally intended role of reality check. While I'm"
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