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Could Gambling Save Science?
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"To appear: Proc. Eighth Intl. Conf. on Risk and Gambling, London, July 1990
Could Gambling Save Science
Encouraging an Honest Consensus
by Robin Hanson
Visiting Researcher, The Foresight Institute
P.O. Box 61058, Palo Alto, CA 94306 USA
hanson@charon.arc.nasa.gov 415-651-7483
The pace of scientific progress may be hindered by the tendency of our
academic institutions to reward being popular, rather than being right. A
market-based alternative, where scientists more formally "stake their
reputation", is presented here. It offers clear incentives to be careful
and honest while contributing to a visible, self-consistent consensus on
controversial (or routine) scientific questions. In addition, it allows
funders to choose questions to be researched without choosing people or
methods. The bulk of this paper is spent examining potential problems with
the proposed approach. After this examination, the idea still seems
plausible and worth further study.
Introduction
After reviewing the discrepancy between what we want from academic
institutions and what we get from current institutions, a market-based
alternative called "idea futures" is suggested. It is described through
both a set of specific scenarios and a set of detailed procedures. Over
thirty possible problems and objections are examined in detail. Finally, a
development strategy is outlined and the possible advantages are
summarized.
The Problem
THE SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION Four centuries ago, some Europeans complained
that the existing academic institutions were biased against them.
Insiders, it was said, were "inflated by letters" and shunned anyone who
dared "speculate on anything out of the common way" [De]. Outsiders --
astrologers, chemists, and people like Bacon and Galileo -- argued that
they and their theories should be judged only by how well they agreed with
observations, an"
....
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