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The Fourth Outfielder Baseball Blog: Marcel ZiPS alongside PECOTA, or How I Learned To Quit Worrying and Love Non-Humorous Half-Pun Titles
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"The Fourth Outfielder Baseball Blog
An account of baseball in general and the Los Angeles Dodgers in particular.
Friday, January 28, 2005
Marcel ZiPS alongside PECOTA, or How I Learned To Quit Worrying and Love Non-Humorous Half-Pun Titles
By request of Tangotiger by way of Jon Weisman , I’m delving into three sets of offensive projections for the 2005 Dodgers to see how they stack up. The projection systems in question are Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA (subscribers only), Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS , and Tangotiger’s Marcel .
Projection systems have a bit of a Rorschach effect; the goals and methods depend on whomsoever produces them, and the results can therefore vary substantially in even very similar systems. The three systems in question here use a very similar process: take the player’s recent performance numbers and regress them. Simple enough, but the question of what population to regress toward varies substantially. In other words, what population (slap-hitting 5’7” guys, power hitting 6’2” guys, and so forth) players are grouped in for regression analysis differs greatly depending on the system. PECOTA’s at one end of the spectrum, putting a great deal of effort into finding a population of similar players for comparison, and Marcel is at the other end of the spectrum, using extremely basic population definitions.
Each approach has its merits. Better defining the population a player belongs to will yield a better projection. Taking the extra steps to do so, though, is often statistically problematic, as defining a player as part of a population on the basis of his performance record creates something of a cross-fertilization effect. For any group of players who are, from a true talent standpoint, very similar, some will have underperformed over a period of time and others will have overperformed. Thus, looking only at those players wh"
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