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Econbrowser: Peak oil for skeptical economists
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"Econbrowser
Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
« Update on Kelo in California
Main
Is there a danger that the Fed will fall behind the inflation curve? »
August 07, 2005
Peak oil for skeptical economists
I earlier
attempted to explain some basic economic perspectives on oil depletion to those who usually
think about the issue from the vantage point of other disciplines. Now I'd like to attempt the
no less perilous task of carrying water the other way across the street, describing to
economists who may find themselves skeptical of the claims made about "peak oil" what I regard
to be some useful insights from geologists and engineers to which some of us have perhaps paid
insufficient attention. As a skeptic and an economist myself, perhaps I'm qualified for that
mission.
Source: Dogru, Hamoud, and Barlow via
the Oil Drum
The figure at the right displays relative fluid densities at different depths for a vertical
cross section from the Abqaiq oil field in Saudi Arabia. The Oil Drum
explains what it means:
Over time the field has been injected with water (the blue zone) and this has pushed up the oil
(the green zone) into the wells. The red is the overlying gas cap. When the reservoir was
untapped it was likely all red and green. After all these years of pumping you can see how
little of the green-- the oil-- remains. The field is about 800 ft thick from top to bottom and
about 1.5 miles below the surface.
There are methods for trying to get as much of the remaining oil out as possible, and indeed,
the article from which this figure was
taken describes one such strategy. However, once development reaches a certain point, the
production flow rate from the field has to decrease. If one wants to keep on taking a larger
quantity of oil out of the ground each year, the only way to do that is to keep finding new
reservoirs.
Includes lease condensate and exclud"
....
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