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Econbrowser: How to talk to an economist about peak oil
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"Econbrowser
Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
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The puzzle of long-term yields »
July 11, 2005
How to talk to an economist about peak oil
I for one would like to see better communication between economists, geologists, and petroleum engineers about the timing and consequences of the eventual decline in global annual production rates of crude petroleum. In part the failure to communicate better with each other stems from differences in the language, assumptions, and paradigms with which those of us from different specialties approach this issue. As one small step toward bridging that gap, I'd like to lay out for noneconomists a few of the key aspects of how economists might think about peak oil .
Suppose you told me that, as a result of a careful examination of oil reservoirs, you were certain that annual oil production was just about to plummet, and would be 30% below its current level in two years. I realize that's a more extreme example than anybody is advocating, but perhaps you'll bear with me in examining its implications for a few minutes before turning to a more subtle scenario.
Let's see if we can first agree on how society ought to respond to these facts that you would be giving us. I would say that the first thing we should do is curtail current oil consumption drastically. Oil is going to be an incredibly valuable commodity in two more years, and we've got to stop wasting it now. By leaving more of the oil in the ground now, we could stretch out the time available to us for developing alternative sources from oil sands and coal and to make radical changes in our transportation systems. And we would need to start immediately making huge investments in those alternatives.
Now let's consider what would happen if the government doesn't make any policy response. Oil is going to become extremely valuable under this scenario in a very short peri"
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