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Google growing — Crooked Timber
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Google growing
by John Quiggin on August 20, 2005
Google is about to issue 14 159 265 more shares (the number chosen is derived from the decimal expansion of pi) aiming to raise about $4 billion at an average price of about $250 a share. Given that I argued that Google was overvalued at the initial offer price of around $80, it might be time to take another look, both at Google as an investment and at the issues raised by its position in the Internet. In this post, I’ll stick to the first issue.
First, up I should concede that I underestimated Google’s starting level of profits (which wasn’t public before the IPO ) and also the rate at which it could increase profits in the short term. Google looks like a better investment than I suggested (though I still think $80, let alone $250 is too high).
On the other hand, the problems with Google’s core business have, I think, become more apparent over the last year or so. Last year I made the point that “there’s no strong reason to suppose that Google will be around in, say, 20 years time,” but this was based more on general principles than on observation of any particular threat to Google’s dominance.
Now, however, I find myself using Google less and alternative methods of finding information on the Internet more. For the kind of search where you simply want to find out a specific fact (such as “when was Gough Whitlam first elected to Parliament”) it’s more efficient to go to Wikipedia. In any case, it is increasingly true that Google searches of this kind will point to Wikipedia, so you might as well go there directly.
The rise of blogs also makes a big difference. For current information, the main Google search engine is pretty much useless. Google News is good for mainstream media sites, but, since blogs have better coverage of many iss"
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