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What next — Crooked Timber


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"Home Our Books Subscribe What next by Ted on August 18, 2005 Orin Kerr recently proposed a useful simplified framework of possible outcomes in Iraq: 1) The U.S. beats back the insurgency and democracy flowers in Iraq (call this the “optimistic stay” scenario), 2) The U.S. digs in its heels, spends years fighting the insurgency, loses lots of troops, and years later withdraws, leading to a bloody and disastrous civil war (the “pessimistic stay” scenario); 3) The U.S. decides that it’s no longer worth it to stay in Iraq, pulls out relatively soon, and things in Iraq are about as best as you could hope for, perhaps leading to a decent amount of democracy (optimistic leave), and 4) The U.S. decides that it’s no longer worth it to stay in Iraq, pulls out soon, and plunges Iraq into a bloody and disastrous civil war with the bad guys assuming control eventually (pessimistic leave). Speaking only for myself, I’m entirely confident that we could achieve outcome 4, believe that staying the course will continue to lead to outcome 2, and can scarcely imagine outcome 3. What about outcome 1? Is it achievable? There’s been some good discussion among some war supporters who believe that the situation in Iraq is dire, but salvageable. They aren’t spending a lot of time flailing against a stab in the back from the press or from tricksy liberals . They’re disturbed by the dialing down of expectations , and by official talk of troop withdrawls. See Charles and von at Obsidian Wings , Bill Kristol at the Weekly Standard , Greg Djerejian at Belgravia Dispatch (also here ). Here’s Greg, speaking as well as anyone: Bottom line people. For the forseeable future Iraqi forces can only supplement U.S. forces, not replace them. Or we risk losing this war (Yes, rampant sectarian violence is a ‘loss’). If we"
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http://instapundit.com/archives/024937.php     flailing against a stab in the back from the press     Visit Site
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic le/2005/08/13/AR2005081300853.html     dialing down of expectations     Visit Site
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic le/2005/08/09/AR2005080900098.html     official talk of troop withdrawls     Visit Site
http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2005 /08/the_second_time.html     von at obsidian wings     Visit Site
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