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Treasury Dynamic Scoring Analysis Refutes Claims by Supporters of the Tax
Cuts, revised 8/24/06
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"Revised August 24, 2006
TREASURY DYNAMIC SCORING ANALYSIS REFUTES CLAIMS BY SUPPORTERS OF THE TAX CUTS
by Jason Furman
On July 25, the Treasury Department released a
study entitled “A Dynamic Analysis of Permanent Extension of the President’s Tax
Relief.” This study refutes many of the exaggerated claims about the tax cuts
that have been made by the President and other senior Administration officials,
the Wall Street Journal editorial page, and various other tax-cut
advocates. Contrary to the claim that the tax cuts will have huge impacts on
the economy, the Treasury study finds that even under favorable assumptions,
making the tax cuts permanent would have a barely perceptible impact on the
economy. Under more realistic assumptions, the Treasury study finds that the
tax cuts could even hurt the economy.
In addition, the study casts doubt on claims that
the tax cuts are responsible for much of the recent growth in investment and
jobs. It finds that making the tax cuts permanent would lead initially to lower
levels of investment, and would result over the longer term in lower levels of
employment (i.e., in fewer jobs).
The Treasury also study decisively refutes the
President’s claim that “The economic growth fueled by tax relief has helped send
our tax revenues soaring,” — in essence, that the tax cuts have more than paid
for themselves.
[1] Instead, under the study’s more
favorable scenario, the modest economic impact of the tax cuts would offset j ust
10 percent of the long-run cost of making the tax cuts permanent according
to an analysis of the Treasury study by the non-partisan Congressional Research
Service (CRS). [2]
Misunderstanding of the
Treasury Study Mars Some News Accounts
Some of the reporting on the
Treasury analysis has made a basic mistake. The Treasury study found "
....
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