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Downturns
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Downturns
The morning paper this morning is not a pretty picture.
New Orleans is flooded.
Large swaths of the southeast are down and out.
Energy prices are spiking.
The war in Iraq shows no sign of ending anytime soon.
Interest rates are headed up.
The housing boom is showing signs of ending (finally).
We have a federal budget defecit that makes my head ache every time I think of it.
And our trade defecit shows no signs of abating.
Ugly, ugly, ugly.
And yet we've had an abundant supply of capital for early stage businesses for the past several years that has led to the formation of many new companies.
What if that capital supply tightens?
What if we have a recession in 2006 like many economists are now predicting?
What if risk premiums return to normal levels?
These are the questions on my mind this morning.
Fortunately, I've lived through a few downturns in the venture business.
The worst by far was the 2001-2003 downturn which was brought on by the burst of the internet and telecom bubbles and made much worse by 9/11.
But I started in the business in the mid 80s in the midst of the post PC bubble downturn.
And I witnessed the bursting of the biotech bubble of the late 80s/early 90s and saw how hard it was to finance a biotech company in the early 90s.
And even during the Internet boom period from 1996 to 2000, we had a period after the russian debt crisis where capital supplies tightened significantly.
We are surely going to have another of these periods at some point, and given my read of this morning's "
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